tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-385949685214359506.post4032715736174343588..comments2023-06-01T09:56:51.436-04:00Comments on Connecticut Political Reporter: Mr. Blumenthal, This Is Your Wake Up CallJonathan Kantrowitzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13919729222396777240noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-385949685214359506.post-1363078055914620832010-08-18T19:47:04.037-04:002010-08-18T19:47:04.037-04:00If you are relying on Rasmussen you will only wind...If you are relying on Rasmussen you will only wind up embarrassing yourself. They don't do real polls. Certainly not this early on, when Rasmussen traditionally produces only humorous propaganda fodder for the right wing media and right wing Bloggers that traditionally repeats the propaganda to try and create a narrative that does not exist in reality.<br /><br />I'll note that there is probably a reason why you don't link to the actual "poll", nor do you name the "polling outfit". And the reason is probably the likelihood of someone - <a href="http://openleft.com/diary/19613/senate-forecast-july-28th-democrats-reach-55-seats-without-rasmussen" rel="nofollow">anyone that follows polls and polling outfits - pointing out what I did in the first paragraph of this comment:</a><br /><br /><i>"The difference between Rasmussen polling and non-Rasmussen polling has reached new heights in tonight's Senate forecast. For the first time, the non-Rasmussen forecast shows Democrats performing fully 3 seats better than in the forecast which includes Rasmussen polls.<br /><br />...snip...<br /><br />Democrats are showing a distinct improvement in non-Rasmussen polling over the past two months, even as there has been little overall change within Rasmussen polling. They are now at 55 seats for the first time in over six months.<br /><br />As the gap between Rasmussen and non-Rasmussen polls increases, I become more inclined to believe the non-Rasmussen forecast. Outlying polls, both by definition and by empirical observation, have more error than non-outlying polls. So, the further away Rasmussen moves from the average of all other polls, the more I think something is wrong with Rasmussen polling.<br /><br />It wouldn't be the first time. In the past, Rasmussen has received a significant source of right-wing funding, and then proven to be the least accurate pollster in an election by erring massively in favor of Republicans."</i><br /> - Chris Bowers @ Open Left last month.<br /><br />Other than continuously being an outlier, and their "poll often and early" tactics (in the hopes of setting a false narrative early in races), Rasmussen has a pretty bad polling methodology to begin with if Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight is to be believed.<br /><br />Get back to me with Rasmussen numbers in the month before the election... That is when they traditionally start "producing" numbers that are closer to the reality of the legit polling outfits so they don't look so embarrassingly off compared to the real election numbers.Connecticut Man1https://www.blogger.com/profile/08923884330387123010noreply@blogger.com